New York
CNN
—
Gold isn’t the only metal smashing through record high prices.
Copper prices in New York hit a record high on Wednesday after Bloomberg reportedthat President Donald Trump might impose tariffs on copper imports in the coming weeks. Wall Street had expected tariffs on copper to come later this year.
The most actively traded copper futures contract in New York hit a record $5.374 per pound Wednesday morning before trading at around $5.24 per pound.
Copper prices have soared 30%this year, largely driven by US buyers trying to stockpile the red metal due to anxiety around potential tariffs. Copper prices have outpaced gold, which has gained 16%, and far outpaced the major US stock indexes this year.
While tariffs on copper have yet to be announced, Trump signed an executive order last month to investigate the national security risks associated with importing copper.
“Copper, a key industrial metal that has yet to be included in Trump’s widening catalogue of tariff-hit products, continues to rally on the assumption that it is just a matter of time,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a recent note.
Copper is not a rare earth mineral nor one of the 50 “critical minerals” designated by the US Geological Survey. However, in 2023, the Department of Energy deemed it a “critical material for energy.” The malleable metal is widely used in construction and manufacturing and has essential purposes for electronics, energy and defense.
The recent price spike in New York copper futures isn’t due to fundamental consumer demand, but rather “major stockpile shifts to the US” due to speculation around tariffs, according to Hansen.
A worker prepares to load an aluminum coil onto a truck at the Arconic manufacturing facility in Alcoa, Tennessee, on Wednesday, March 9, 2022.
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In London, copper prices have also risen, though not to record highs. Since January, copper futures traded in New York have begun to outpace copper futures traded in London, breaking away from their trend of tracking each other. New York copper futures are now trading at a 17% premium, according to Hansen.
“It highlights how tariffs continue to uproot normal market behavior,” he said.
Commodities giant Mercuria estimates that about 500,000 tons of copper are being shipped to the US this month — a significant boost from the standard monthly import of about 70,000 tons, according to Bloomberg.
“Front-running the potential tariff has unleashed a wave of near-term demand for copper housed in the US,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
“We think shipments to the US will likely be fast tracked,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a Wednesday note, adding that imports of copper in April could jump 200,000 tons.
The analysts at Goldman Sachs said they had initially been expecting tariffs on copper to go into effect in between September and November.
Copper’s bull run
While the recent surge in copper prices has primarily been driven by tariff anxiety, other factors have also underpinned copper’s rise over the past year.
There has been increasing global demand for copper in energy and technology like electronic vehicles, as well as continued demand in China.
The recent US stockpiles could leave the rest of the world with a smaller reserve, according to Hansen. The world is expected to meet only 70% of global copper demand by 2035, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.
Glencore, a commodities giant, suspended production at one of its copper smelters in Argentina this month, creating a lull in supply that is also contributing to higher prices, according to Reuters.
But despite all the uncertainty and speculation, Wall Street will ultimately have to wait and see what Trump’s actual policy is toward tariffs on copper.
“There may be a price correction, at least temporarily, as soon as the pull-forward effect on US demand comes to an end,” analysts at Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.
